June 16, 2013

PSU market yesterday. Sunny day. Kids out of school for summer. Vacations. Crowd —> Throng. Market emotions start to come into play. Fear and greed. Meeting an essential human motivator: food. Gathering food. Bringing home sustenance for the family/group/tribe. “Need to get those strawberries before the organic guy sells out!” In Paris you can get […]

March 2, 2013

The 5 levels of risk appetite: Averse Avoidance of risk and uncertainty is a key organisation objective. Minimal Preference for ultra-safe options that are low risk and only have a potential for limited reward. Cautious Preference for safe options that have a low degree of risk and may only have limited potential for reward. Open […]

September 21, 2012

“I never benefited much from a move if I did not get in at somewhere near the beginning of the move. And the reason is that I missed the backlog of profit which is very necessary to provide the courage and patience to sit thourgh a move until the end comes – and to stay […]

June 20, 2012

Top of the year, the pendulum out as far as it goes. The final extension of daylight hours before she starts on her long topping pattern. I wonder sometimes if there weren’t primitives who were seduced into believing that one year, the days might just keep getting longer and longer. Into perpetuity. It sounds ridiculous. […]

May 23, 2012

The attractiveness of any trade basically boils down to a simple equation: TradeAttractiveness = (WinProb*WinValue) – (LossProb*LossValue) (Unless you trade for JP Morgan Chase, in which case LossProb is equal to zero I suppose?) Simple and elegant right? Well that’s a little like declaring that hitting a baseball is just about the hitter mentally calculating […]

April 29, 2012

In the Spring we watch the Strawberry Line march north. First they come in from Peru. Then Southern Mexico. Then Baja. Then California, those Lodi berries that are oh so good. Then finally we get them locally. Oregon berries. The Seascapes varietal first. Faintly sweet, fleshy berries. Tillamooks and Aromas arrive next, delightful fruit, sweet […]

May 21, 2011

Helmuth von Moltke, German general andgenerally pretty wise dude. A guy I worked with once said to me, while we were in the midst of putting out a fire that we’d planned for but was requiring expedient upon expedient to douse, “I think the best part about having a plan is, then you know when […]